In the August report we wrote that the industry was still anticipating further increases. It happened, and faster than is comfortable to write.
Both of the paper producers that supply us issued increase notices for September 2026 orders — six days apart, at exactly the same amount. The two letters are dated 13 and 19 August.
As with the previous report: this page is information, not a price-adjustment notice. Adjustments for each item go out through each customer’s own quotation, because the impact is not uniform across items.
Where we stand: eleven months, twelve increases
From the same starting point as the August report — November 2025 — this is the position now:
- Cumulative paper increase + Rp 2,200/kg Nov 2025 – Sep 2026 The same total at both producers
- Number of increases 12 increases six from each producer Zero decreases across the period
- Gap between the two letters 6 days 13 and 19 August 2026 Identical amount, identical stated reason
That Rp 2,200 is the eleven-month cumulative total, and it happens to be the same figure at both producers. The month-by-month detail — how much each increase was, from which producer, on what date — is in the full report, which you can request below.
Price increases received from paper producers
Count of increases, cumulative, November 2025 – September 2026
- Producer A
- Producer B
Scroll the chart sideways to see all of it.
View the data as a table
| Month | Producer A (count, cumulative) | Producer B (count, cumulative) |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2025 | 1 | 0 |
| Dec 2025 | 2 | 0 |
| Jan 2026 | 2 | 1 |
| Feb 2026 | 2 | 2 |
| Mar 2026 | 3 | 2 |
| Apr 2026 | 4 | 3 |
| May 2026 | 4 | 4 |
| Jun 2026 | 5 | 4 |
| Jul 2026 | 5 | 5 |
| Aug 2026 | 5 | 5 |
| Sep 2026 | 6 | 6 |
One note so the numbers do not read as contradicting the August report: there we wrote “ten increases”, here “twelve”. Both count the same thing with a different divisor — ten events through July, twelve events through September, six of them belonging to each producer. From now on we state the divisor in the same sentence.
What is new: the Q4 warning sits inside the increase letter itself
This is the part worth noting, and not because of its size.
Both September letters mention a possible further adjustment in Q4 2026, and one producer names the middle of that quarter specifically. In the eleven months this wave has been running, this is the first time a producer has put its estimate of the next increase inside a live increase letter.
An increase notice normally stops at the increase it is announcing. Naming the next one means the producer is already looking far enough ahead to feel it should warn early — and that is planning information for you, not just the tone of a letter.
Why this wave, and why now
The September increase is not one producer’s policy. Two suppliers moved by the same amount within six days, and they gave the same reason: raw material and production costs.
The main driver this time is recovered paper (OCC) supply. Through 2026 the availability of recycled fibre in the regional market has tightened: inconsistent collection volumes, shipping disruption, and buying competition between mills across Asia. Freight and energy moved the same way, alongside the domestic carbon tax at a minimum of Rp 30,000 per tonne CO2e in force since this year. [1][4]
The same pressure shows in the global containerboard market, with similar drivers — recycled fibre, freight, electricity. [3] We raise that not as a price comparison, since Indonesia’s cost structure is its own, but as a marker that the source of the pressure is not a local problem.
PT Jaya Mandiri Packaging sits where you sit in this chain: we take the paper price, we do not set it. We are a converter — we buy carton sheet from a corrugator mill, and that mill buys paper directly from the producers. A paper increase reaches us as a sheet increase, and in early September we received that in writing.
Two things changed since the August report — one of them against our own forecast
A report is only useful if the corrections travel with it, not just the parts that support your case. So here are both.
The rupiah strengthened instead
The August report recorded the rupiah weakening from Rp 16,780 (January) to Rp 18,106 per US dollar at the end of July, and listed it as one driver of the increases. Since then the direction reversed. Between 1 and 10 September 2026 the JISDOR reference rate moved down from Rp 17,727 to Rp 17,536 — about 3% stronger than the July peak. [2]
Which means the exchange rate is no longer a driver of this September increase. This wave rests on recycled fibre, freight and energy — not on the currency.
We are saying this even though it does not help our position: one of the five reasons we published in August has now moved the other way, and paper still went up. What that should tell you is not that the August report was wrong, but that the raw material pressure is strong enough to push prices up without any help from the currency.
Demand is finding its footing — not recovering
Indonesia’s Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.8 in August 2026, slightly down from 50.2 in July and still below the 50 expansion threshold. But inside that number two things moved up: new orders rose for the first time in three months, and business optimism reached its highest level in seven months. [1]
- Rupiah exchange rate Rp 18,106 → 17,536 ±3% stronger 29 Jul → 10 Sep 2026, JISDOR [2]
- Indonesia Manufacturing PMI 49.8 from 50.2 in July New orders up for the first time in 3 months [1]
- North American containerboard 3rd wave effective 1 September On top of the net US$100/ton from the first two waves [3]
The picture: costs still rising, demand only now getting to its feet. That is an uncomfortable combination for both sides of the table, and we are not going to describe it as a rising market.
A paper increase is not a box increase of the same percentage
This is the most commonly misread part, and worth repeating every edition.
Paper is the largest cost component in a carton box — typically 70–80% of production cost — but it is not the only one. And the impact on each item follows the weight of paper in that box. A high-grammage or double-wall box is hit harder than a low-grammage single-wall one, because what went up is priced per kilogram of paper, not per box.
That is why adjustments are not uniform across items, and why we send them per quotation rather than as one percentage for everything. If a supplier sends you a single flat percentage covering your whole item list, it is fair to ask where that number came from.
Also worth asking about: a quotation that quietly goes down in a market like this. Usually what was cut is grammage, and what you lose is box strength. How to calculate carton base weight shows you how to check it yourself.
We will say it plainly: the accumulation since November 2025 has passed what we can absorb internally, and an adjustment this period is unavoidable. What we can control is that the size of it stays proportionate to each item’s specification, and that we can show you the reasoning.
How we are working this period
Three things from the August report still stand:
- Quotations valid for 14 days — not a tactic to rush your decision, but because a 30-day quotation means guessing the material price three to four weeks out.
- Price commitment periods of 2–3 months, not 6.
- Stock levels follow live job orders, not a speculative buffer.
One is new, and it comes directly out of the Q4 warning above:
Every quotation we issue this period states how long we hold that price. For customers who need a longer price-hold period, that price is calculated differently from a short-horizon quotation — because the risk of an increase during that window moves to us. We can put both side by side, so you choose which makes more sense for your budget.
Those are not two prices for the same thing. One is a price for boxes; the other is a price for boxes plus certainty.
The material review is worth more now, not less
We offered this in the August report and we are repeating it, because in current conditions it returns more than it used to.
Reviewing grammage, flute and box dimensions often produces a larger saving than negotiating a discount does — without reducing product protection. The logic is simple: if paper is 70–80% of box cost and paper went up per kilogram, then every kilogram of paper you do not need to buy is worth more today than it was last year.
On our floor, over-spec — double wall where single wall already carries the part — is the cost most often removable at no cost to anything else. The flute selection guide covers the basis for it.
If you want us to run that review on your live items, the team is ready — and there is no charge for it.
What we expect next
Both producers mention a possible further adjustment in Q4 2026, one of them naming the middle of the quarter.
Abroad the picture is clearer because the announcements are public. The third wave of North American containerboard increases took effect on 1 September, and price reporting agencies expect implementation to continue into early 2027 because of the lag in supply-chain adjustment. [3] Read that carefully: the net US$100 per ton already recognised across 2026 is the position from the first two waves — this third one sits outside that figure and is not yet fully implemented.
We are not in a position to confirm the size of the next one here. What we can promise is unchanged: we monitor this directly from the producers every month, and we tell you before an adjustment, not after it. This report is the evidence — it is published before the September quotations reach your desk.
Request the full report
The full version contains what we do not publish here: the month-by-month increase table with rupiah-per-kilogram figures, per producer, from November 2025 through September 2026 — plus the date of each letter and the underlying sources.
Send the specification of the boxes you are running if you want the PT Jaya Mandiri Packaging team to show you where cost can still be locked down before Q4 — with numbers, not promises.
Sources
- S&P Global, Indonesia Manufacturing PMI, August 2026 — 49.8, down from 50.2 in July; new orders up for the first time in three months; business optimism at a seven-month high. Released 1 September 2026, reported by IDX Channel and CNBC Indonesia, with comment from the Ministry of Industry.
- Bank Indonesia JISDOR reference rate, 1–10 September 2026 — Rp 17,727 (1 Sep) moving down to Rp 17,536 (10 Sep), within a daily range of Rp 17,500–17,800. Compared against Rp 18,106 on 29 July 2026 as recorded in the August report. bi.go.id
- Packaging Dive, “Containerboard pricing holds steady in August”, 25 August 2026 — the net US$100/ton recognised by Fastmarkets RISI across 2026 comes from the first two waves; the third wave took effect 1 September (Packaging Corporation of America US$140/ton announced 24 July, International Paper US$80/ton, Smurfit Westrock US$100/ton) and implementation is expected to continue into early 2027.
- Indonesia’s carbon tax at a minimum of Rp 30,000 per tonne CO2e, in force since 2026 — Kontan, 8 January 2026. The tightening of recycled fibre availability, shipping disruption and buying competition across Asian markets follow Fastmarkets’ recovered paper market monitoring through 2026.
Data in this report is current to 10 September 2026. The previous report — the full mechanism behind this wave and the period November 2025 – July 2026 — is at Paper market report 2026. We publish an update each time another wave lands.
Source: PT Jaya Mandiri Packaging (JMP) — carton box & polybag manufacturer for the automotive industry since 1990. jayamandiripackaging.com
